In the November 2024 installment of the GCFTF Mexico newsletter, our coordination partner in Mexico – Pronatura Sur – writes:
Mexico has made commitments to the international community to address the climate emergency and has developed instruments at the national and subnational levels to reduce emissions, increase adaptive capacity and reduce risks to the population, ecosystems and productive systems, as well as to ensure the country’s sustainable development. Against this backdrop, the Mexico Climate Initiative (ICM) and the Governors’ Group on Climate and Forests (GCFTF), through the Coordination in Mexico led by Pronatura Sur, within the framework of a collaboration to strengthen subnational capacities that contribute to the fulfillment of their climate change mitigation commitments, join efforts to support jurisdictions interested in defining coordinated actions between the federation and the states to comply with the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). In this edition of the newsletter, we share information on the policy briefs conducted for Yucatan and Oaxaca, member states of the GCFTF Mexico, which analyze the mitigation potential in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, proposing concrete actions for the states to expand their mitigation opportunities.
The following is translated from the newsletter announcement:
Actions at the subnational level towards a comprehensive climate change policy: the work of Yucatan and Oaxaca, GCFTF Mexico states.
Considering that capacity building at the subnational level is an indispensable task for state governments to contribute to the advancement of national and global goals for reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, initiatives such as the GCFTF, led by Pronatura Sur with the support of the Mexico Climate Initiative (ICM), have joined forces to develop guiding resources for the implementation of actions that comply with state commitments, while also expanding jurisdictional opportunities to achieve their greatest mitigation potential.
To initiate this effort, two policy briefs were developed, one for the state of Yucatan and the other for Oaxaca. Both documents, entitled “Substantive Elements for the Implementation of Actions in the AFOLU Sector and Compliance with Subnational Commitments under the Paris Agreement”, comprehensively analyze the role of the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in both entities, with the objective of providing key information for decision makers and designing mitigation strategies to close the emissions gap, promoting synergies between sectors and inter-institutional collaboration at the subnational level.
Both documents outline a context of challenges but also of progress for Mexico, derived from the firm commitment that the country has made with the international community to face the climate crisis, based on key instruments such as the Paris Agreement (PA) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These international frameworks have been part of the basis for the development of instruments at the national and subnational levels to reduce emissions, increase adaptive capacity and reduce risks to the population, ecosystems and productive systems, also guaranteeing the protection of human rights in the area of climate change.
At the national level, with the entry into force of the General Law on Climate Change (LGCC), both the principles of climate policy and the instruments for its implementation in the country are established, such as the National Climate Change Strategy and the Special Climate Change Program. With these instruments, Mexico has been able to establish ambitious goals for the mitigation component, such as those presented in 2015 and later in 2020 in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 22% by 2030 in an unconditional manner, and up to 36% in a conditional manner.
GHG emissions are estimated considering the activity of various sectors, in particular we are interested in highlighting the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (USCUSS) that generates both GHG emissions and removals, the latter will be 3 times higher in 2030, according to the estimate contained in the NDC of Mexico in 2020, this in a scenario of absence of mitigation actions that would reduce the absorption potential of this sector, which represents a critical challenge for the fulfillment of mitigation goals at the national level. Therefore, halting deforestation and improving forest management are priority actions to take advantage of the country’s mitigation potential and contribute to climate adaptation.
Added to this panorama of GHG estimates are the main challenges faced by the national climate change policy, which were identified in an evaluation carried out by the Evaluation Coordination of the LGCC published in 2019. These challenges have to do with the mainstreaming of climate policy in the sectors of interest, access to information and coordination to achieve mitigation objectives, the lag in adaptation issues, and the need for capacity building and strengthening in states and municipalities to implement mitigation and adaptation actions. In addition to the above, the Mexico Climate Initiative (ICM) identifies the lack of financial resources as another important challenge. To support this statement, it takes up a study by the National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC), which estimated that more than $126 billion dollars are needed to meet the NDC objectives between 2014 and 2030, a figure that far exceeds the allocated budgets.
The policy briefs position the AFOLU sector as a strategic focus for sub-national climate action, highlight how local interventions can have a significant global impact and provide a practical framework for state governments to align their strategies with national and international goals. The document developed for Yucatan is based on a set of key messages that identify the expansion of agribusiness, extensive cattle ranching and urbanization as the main causes of the loss of forest cover, and thus of the absorption capacity of the territory. The state, carbon neutral until 2010, now faces a projected 7% annual growth in net emissions by 2050.
In order to understand what it means for Yucatan to meet the objectives set out in the NDC and the PA, the work that led to the creation of the policy brief involved preparing a baseline of emissions to 2050 based on information from the 2014-2018 State Inventory provided by the Ministry of Sustainable Development and land use transitions for the period 2000- 2018. From these annual data, trend growths were derived and subsequently contrasted with the perspective of local experts. In addition to the documentary review, interviews and dialogue forums were conducted to identify key actions implemented or in planning whose potential joint contribution represents an increase of 35% of the current contribution of the AFOLU sector to climate change mitigation.
On the other hand, the document prepared for Oaxaca also mentions some key messages to dimension the urgency of identifying actions with greater mitigation potential in the AFOLU sector. It is highlighted that the loss of forest land generates emissions and a loss of absorption capacity, thus representing a double process of emissions. Therefore, it is essential to conserve existing forests, jungles and mangroves, increase their areas and reduce the expansion of the agricultural frontier. The implementation of conservation agriculture practices and silvopastoral systems contributes to this objective.
The policy brief also shows that the state faces a loss of 13,000 hectares of forests and jungles per year, reducing its carbon sequestration capacity. Oaxaca’s net emissions are projected to go from -2,958 Gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent (GgCO2e) in 2019 to 1,166 GgCO2e in 2050 if corrective measures are not implemented. If the current trend in the loss of carbon absorption capacity continues, Oaxaca will cease to be a carbon neutral state by 2042.
The emissions baseline to 2050 for the state of Oaxaca is based on information from the Inventory of Greenhouse Gases and Compounds of the State of Oaxaca 2019 (CINAM, 2019). Based on the annual inventory data, trend growth was derived and subsequently contrasted with the perspective of local experts. As in the case of Yucatan, a document review, interviews and dialogue forums were carried out, which allowed identifying key actions implemented or in planning.
According to both policy briefs, the success of the implementation of the actions proposed for Yucatan and Oaxaca, as well as their consideration in the contribution to the NDC, depends on having diagnostic information at the local level, establishing collaboration agreements among stakeholders, developing capacities to implement projects at pilot scale and, subsequently, scaling them up, seeking funding from various sources, either from the public budget or from international cooperation, and ensuring a standardized monitoring and evaluation mechanism from which results reports are generated and considered in the NDC, The implementation of pilot scale projects and, subsequently, scaling them up, seeking financing through different channels, whether from the public or private budget or international cooperation, and ensuring a standardized monitoring and evaluation mechanism that generates reports on results to be considered in the Information System on the Advances in Transversality of the National Contribution (SIAT-NDC).
Likewise, the leadership of the State Government is key to advance the efforts from different levels, since acting as a link between the different actors allows the emergence of new coordination opportunities to achieve the sector’s mitigation goals. On this point, Dr. Karime Unda Harp, head of the Secretary of Environment, Biodiversity, Energy and Sustainability of the State of Oaxaca (SEMABIESO), shared some reflections on the state’s outlook regarding the achievement of mitigation goals at the subnational level. This during the panel “Commitment to action: mobilizing subnational leadership in the AFOLU sector in Mexico to unite local and national mitigation ambitions” presented at the most recent edition of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), which was organized by the GCFTF, Pronatura Sur, Mexico Climate Initiative (ICM) and Política y Legislación Ambiental (POLEA).
During her speech, Unda Harp emphasized that “it is necessary to consolidate alliances with governmental and non-governmental entities, private initiative, national and international cooperation agencies, universities, research centers and civil society organizations to identify and work on common objectives. This type of synergy helps strengthen capacities, contributes to mobilize resources and facilitates the improvement of technologies and the implementation of best practices. To illustrate the above, he mentioned two initiatives that are currently working in the state and exemplify the potential of alliances. The first seeks to promote the connectivity of the Selva Zoque through the restoration of degraded areas and is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), in coordination with UNDP, TNC and Pronatura Sur. The second, Tierra de Agaves, Naturaleza y Cultura, promotes the sustainability of the agave-mezcal value chain and is funded by GEF7 in coordination with the United Nations Environment Program and Pronatura Sur.
Finally, the analysis presented in both documents reinforces the importance of local and subnational climate actions, highlighting the need for inter-institutional coordination, the inclusion of multiple actors and the integration of efficient monitoring mechanisms. Some reflections on the potential of replicating this exercise in other GCFTF Mexico member states are also included, such as the fact that it would allow subnational governments to identify the mitigation gap, as well as the main opportunities and challenges to close it. In addition, synergies between different mitigation strategies can be identified, as well as generating information to define goals in other sectors.
If you would like to learn more about this topic, in the coming days the policy brief will be available for consultation on the Pronatura Sur website, in the GCFTF Mexico Coordination section.